Chris Catto-Smith, CEO of Freshport
Over the past month we have witnessed the appalling consequences and rapid escalation of urban warfare on the streets of Bangkok following an extended period of civil unrest.
Paradise Lost
As hopes fade that talks can
prevent a full scale military assault, there have been escalating
casualties on a daily basis - we ask 'how could it come to this?"
Logistics however is playing a central role in the provision of both
the delivery of force and emergency assistance to those both directly
and indirectly caught up in the conflict.
Waking the Tiger
What we have also seen is the
relative effectiveness of the logistics efforts behind both the
Government security forces and protestors. Conventional military
logistics is often reliant on only four key factors Food, Fuel,
Equipment & Ammunition. The mobilization of tens of thousands of
conventional soldiers and security personnel with their lethal weaponry
and heavy transport vehicles has identified potential gaps in the
availability of military apparatus necessary to engage in urban
operations within its own capital. For example when water is turned
off to the protest area (during the start of the monsoon) it is likely
to have more of an adverse impact on fire services who will need to
respond to large scale arson rather than depriving protestors who have
access to individual building water storage tanks (and even the city
aquarium).
Using What You Have
For many
of the protestors, their logistics resources have been very limited and
relied on a different set of variables: Mobility, Money, Defenses,
Evasion and Communication. The protest groups have been able to rapidly
secure and maintain a grip on a sizable area of the centre of Bangkok
with relatively low cost and freely available materials such as car
tyres, bamboo poles, petrol and plastic screening. They have had to
reinforce and extend their logistics capabilities, resorting to
ambushes and traps in which arms, ammunition, vehicles, and other
resources have been captured. Light weaponry such as slingshots and
energy drink bottles used as Molotov cocktails have been only slightly
effective - however burning tyres and screening have done their job to
protect against discriminate shooting. One of the most challenging
logistics problems facing the protestors has been the sourcing and
transportation of protective and defensive materials and then
assembling it where it is needed. This had to be accomplished even when
the there were cordons and roads blocked.
What Should Have Been
The
military logistics machine of a country would normally include the
procurement, transport, storage and delivery of emergency, life saving
material and possibly casualty clearing stations to areas affected by
disaster or conflict. With urban warfare often it is the ability of
that country or community to support their own logistical
infrastructure which is affected early on in a crisis. However amid the
confusion of the current crisis this has in turn exacerbated, or in
some cases, given rise to increased crisis casualties or untreated
gunshot injuries.
Objectives Achieved?
When
Russian forces attacked Grozny in 1999, the Army handled the issue of
civilian casualties by warning the inhabitants that they were going to
launch an all-out assault and that all civilians leave the city area.
Due to the complexity of what was only intended to be use of
proportional force, the army had to resort to an artillery bombardment
and point blank fighting consuming large quantities of equipment and
materiel. Despite the destruction of much of the financial and retail
infrastructure of the city, logistics played a key role in the overall
response because of the scale and dimensions that were involved in the
operation.
Porous Cordons
Defenders in
Grozny had the advantage of detailed local knowledge of the area, right
down to the layout inside of buildings and means of travel not shown on
maps. Buildings provided many sniping posts while alleys and
rubble-filled streets proved ideal for planting massive booby traps
using LPG cylinders. Defenders were able to move from one part of the
cordoned area to another virtually undetected.
Intricate Logistics
Meanwhile,
the attackers tended to become more exposed as they had to use the open
streets more often, unfamiliar with the defenders' local and hidden
routes. During a building-to-building search the attackers were again
exposed. Complicating factors in urban warfare are the presence of
civilians and the complexity of the city terrain. The means whereby
each of the agencies involved in that operation collaborated with the
host population and with each other to try and bring basic protection
of life through provision of health care logistics and food was an
intricate one.
Many Dimensions
Some
benign protestors may be difficult to distinguish from combatants such
as armed militias and gangs, particularly if individuals are simply
trying to protect their homes from the attackers or simply just staying
put in support of their cause. Tactics are complicated by a
three-dimensional environment, limited fields of view and fire because
of buildings, enhanced concealment and cover for defenders, below
ground infrastructure, and the ease of placement of large scale
flammable booby traps and snipers.
Logistic Determination
Conventional
military logistics refers to the maintenance problems for an army or a
regular armed force, transported in vehicles with fixed bases and
supply lines. With impending urban warfare, there will not be another
army to face but multiple small armed groups, intentionally fragmented.
They will have no dedicated vehicles, nor fixed bases. Their supply
lines will often be precarious and insufficient, and will have no
established base except in the rudimentary sense of hidden caches and
reliance on popular support from local communities.
Breakdown after the Assault
Having
experienced first hand the mass break down of law and order in Jakarta
during May1998, the logistics complexity of the urban warfare challenge
will only grow as cities in developing countries continue to gather in
the poor and disaffected where traditional cultural, religious and
social bonds among young males fuel ongoing conflict. The logistics
effort in that situation related to the rapid mobilization of well
organized and highly mobile mobs that rapidly multiplied the level of
destruction and resulting casualties. Once basic income sources were
interrupted and food supplies restricted, mass looting of retail and
food stocks then occurred driven by necessity and survival.
Widespread Escalation or Peaceful Resolution?
The
security forces in Thailand now face the prospect to repress widespread
urban and rural rebellion. Whilst the protest elements need to sustain
operations, logistical lines of supply and evasive tactics, (which have
nothing in common with conventional warfare), their efforts will be
directed against the conventional military or security forces. In view
of the humanitarian urgency this process must be quick and it must be
accepted politically and operationally by the community.
The author is an ex-military logistician experienced in rapid deployment, combat logistics and humanitarian aid.
This article is adapted from Weekly Link, published in the Bangkok Post and is co-ordinated by Barry Elliott (BJElliott@ABf1Consulting.com) and Chris Catto-Smith CMC of the Institute of Management Consultants Thailand (cattoc@cmcthailand.org). It is intended to be an interactive forum for industry professionals; we welcome all input, questions, feedback and news.